Myanmar military junta faces reduced fighting capabilities as it experiences an increasing amount of its troops surrendering

On April 11th, 2024, Mizzima News Media reported that the number of military junta troops who surrendered after the "1027 Operation" totals about 6,065 personnel. This number is based on a survey from a specific locality, but if we consider the number of surrenders from various locations, the total may be as high as 7,000.

Although the number of troops who surrendered also includes non-combatant soldiers and support staff, it is still a relatively large figure for the junta, which had an infantry force of around 30,000. Of the 30 commands mainly relied on for offensive operations, it can be said that about 7 have already been destroyed.

It is also observed that the military has been redeploying soldiers who surrendered in the Northern Shan States and have been released by the ethnic forces. In other words, due to the drastic shortage of troops, the military can no longer prosecute its own troops who surrendered to the enemy.

Furthermore, military observers and experts, including soldiers who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) as well as resistance forces, estimate that tens of thousands of junta troops have either been killed, wounded, or deserted since the beginning of the armed conflict that arose after the 2021 military coup. The troops that have been killed, wounded, or surrendered during the three-year period following the coup mainly come from the infantry units, which are the core combatant troops for the junta.

Although the military junta has tried to supplement the declining infantry forces in various ways, it faces a daunting task since joining the army has become a very unpopular career choice. Therefore, to remedy the issue of dwindling troops, the conscription law was enforced on February 10 of this year. Even though it is stated that the period of military service for conscripted soldiers is only 2 years, this too may be extended as needed by the junta.

No matter how hard the military junta tries, it is unlikely that it can maintain its diminishing power for long. It will be very difficult to fix the weakened morale of its troops and the rapid reduction in the number of capable fighting forces. Therefore, revolutionary forces should not give the military junta too much time to regroup and revitalize itself by using forceful methods on the public. We recommend that a more united, coordinated, and balanced approach be taken among the revolutionary forces to quickly end the military front of the junta.